31 March 2018, by Seyit Evran
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (RTE) has launched an invasion attack on Afrin by positioning the gangs he has created from the groups of DAİS, al-Qaeda and Muslim Brothers beside his invading and looting army. Thus, the new actors of the new process in Syria and the region begun to take the stage. Clearly, after France’s acceptance of the North Syrian delegation at the highest level, it is understood that NATO, the United Nations, the United States and the International Coalition have given France the lead in the new process. However, this new development seems like it will test whether RTE and Turkey will take sides with Russia or NATO, EU, the US and UN.
POWERS THAT ARE EFFECTIVE IN THE INVASION
It is now accepted by everyone that the invasion of Afrin launched by the agreement between RTE and Russia has started a new process in the region; many writers, intellectuals and political analysts evaluate the current developments this way. Although Afrin’s invasion was initiated by an agreement between RTE and Russia, it is known that it is not only between these two countries. Since the invasion, massacres, demolitions, demographic changes have begun and continue until now. The silence of the countries connected to NATO and the UN both militarily and politically proved their share in this invasion. The invasion attempt of Afrin therefore made it clear that there is a conflict between two emerging sides due to their own plans in the region: NATO, UN, US, international coalition and EU countries on one side, and Russia and Turkey on the other side. However, by remaining silent to activate their plans against Russia and Turkey that is collaborating with Russia, it would not be wrong to say that this is also an operation started by NATO to put their plans into action. The invasion on Afrin makes it obvious that NATO, UN, US, Coalition forces have made plans to implement their own policies with new actors in the new process that has begun with this occupation.
THE LEADERSHIP OF THE NEW PROCESS WAS GIVEN TO FRANCE
Towards the 70th day of the invasion, massacres, demolition and forced demographic changes, French President Emmanuel Macron formally accepted a delegation from the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria at the Elysee Palace. Statements were made after the meeting with the delegation. The statement made on behalf of the French Presidency with a clear emphasis on the phrase “we gave guarantees of support” was different from all statements made so far by international powers concerning the Federation of North Syria. Because until now, even the USA which made connections with the political and military forces of Northern Syria after the attacks on Kobanê in 2014, has never made such a clear statement until today. Again, Russia sending troops to certain regions of Afrin by using the Turkish threats as an excuse did not make a clear statement on this issue at that time. None of the other EU countries’ statements on Syria and the Federation of North Syria have so far provided any clear support. With this statement, France in a way has stated that it would have some preparations with respect to the Federation of North Syria. In fact, before the invasion of Afrin, France had announced that it approves the prosecution of French citizens who joined DAESH by Democratic Forces of Northern Syria. This statement by France was interpreted as France taking steps towards recognizing Federation of North Syria. Due to a clear statement made after the recent meeting with the North Syrian Delegation, it can also be considered that France might make preparations to recognize the Federation officially in the upcoming period.
Russia by cooperating with RTE, by approving the invasion of Afrin in return for East Guta, by approving the massacres and genocide of Kurdish people and the seizure of their land and houses, has climbed to the top of the list of unfavorable countries in the eyes of the Kurdish people. The US explicitly endorsing the occupation by saying “We are not interested in Afrin,” brought the relationship to point of ending that had been developed with the Kurds and the other peoples of North Syria after the Kobane resistance. NATO was unresponsive and quiet to many of its member states, like Germany selling weapons to Turkey for invasion and massacre. During the invasion attempt, France in a way tried to counter invasion by some statements. All this shows that NATO, the UN, the United States, the international coalition partners and the EU countries were making preparations to bring France to the forefront. Thus, it would not be wrong to say that France, by making supporting statements in favor of the peoples of North Syria instead of powers that have lost their reputation, France now is being made “the protector of northern Syrian people”.
Selecting France as a “protector” has many reasons. Firstly, The Sykes-Picot Agreement, which was made in 1916 left Syria to France and Iraq to England. Because of this, France still has a serious impact on the daily administration of Syria. In addition to this, another reason for the selection of France as being a protector is France’s relations with Iran. France is one of the countries with the best relations with Iran among the EU countries. In fact, via France’s impact over Iran and Syrian Baath Regime, it is meant to create an influence against Russia and Turkey. Thus, it seems like there will be a new policy being tried with Iran in Syria where Russia tries to divide it by using Turkey. These steps being taken indicate that there will be no serious action against Iran in the near future in the region. Rather than taking action against Iran, it would not be wrong to say that there might be some serious steps against Turkey who is acting against NATO by allying with Russia. It seems there may be some sanctions applied against RTE and his regime in Turkey to prevent his aggression and his threats to NATO by allying with Russia. Whether there will only be sanctions against RTE and his regime will depend on RTE’s politics. But it would not be wrong to say that a new process has started against RTE and his regime which might continue until the end of his power. RTE has become dangerous not only for the Kurds but also for all the EU countries, NATO and the UN.
TURKEY ENTERED INTO A PROCESS OF MAKING A DECISION
It is a big mistake to see the steps taken by France and its president as steps of only France. Because NATO, the United States, the UN and the International Coalition forces have given this as a task to France and Macron to take these steps. On behalf of these political and military institutions and countries, the leadership of regional policies is now given to France. After a diplomatic move against Russia under the leadership of the United Kingdom and by the US, NATO and many members of EU, this task sufficiently proves that France has been given the lead role in the practical politics of the region. RTE responded French President’s statement with threats. These threats are actually a threat against NATO, the United States, the UN, EU countries and International Coalition forces that have given France this task. International military and political institutions when giving this task to France forced Turkey to make a choice between Russia or the US, EU, NATO and UN to ally with. RTE and the Turkish Government now facing such preference. Regardless of their choice, one does not have to be a fortune teller to guess that Turkey will face the intervention of the other party. It seems the cards will be reshuffled in the region and current developments clearly confirm this.
Source ANF Turkish
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